Is a “Denialist” just Anyone who questions the Immorality of Progress?

A lot of the commentary from skeptics blogs on the BBC Attack on Science programme was expressing the view that the Beeb was engaged in a one-sided attack on climate skepticism, and only plays to the environmental agenda.

I dont know if this is really true even though it might seem it after the Meet the Skeptics documentary also, but here at least from a year ago is a fascinating Radio 4 episode of Analysis asking Are Environmentalists Bad for the Planet?

Featuring Greenpeace chairman John Sauven, Jonathan Porritt, Professor of Climate Change Mike Hulme; the theologian and United Nations adviser on climate change and world religions Martin Palmer; Sociologist Lord Anthony Giddens; John Gummer MP and policy director of the New Economics Foundation Andrew Simms and others, the main theme is that, whatever about the science of climate change, climate activists are using it as a way of imposing their anti-modernist, anti-technology agenda:

PALMER: I think the core of what the environmental movement has done is it has taken sin, guilt and fear from religion and has used those very strongly. The problem is that in good religion – if I can put it that way – that is always combined with a sense of hope, a sense of liberational salvation and a sense of personal responsibility but not the kind of responsibility that makes you feel you are a victim of the weight of your sins and guilt. Bad religion ignores the hope, salvation dimension of it and seeks to create a climate of fear which then means that those in control of creating that climate of fear are in control of those people and become dictators and there is – and I hate to say this – but there is a very strong –it’s very small – but there is a very strong green fascism in much of the environmental world. I’ve heard it said at meetings I’ve been at – that climate change is so important – democracy has to be sacrificed.

This is indeed the view of for example Professor of medicine and IPCC author Dr. David Shearman who apparently argues in his recent book The Climate Change Challenge and the Failure of Democracy that democracy is incapable of dealing with the global climate change crisis, and therefore needs to be replaced by an authoritarian world government with the power to force people to do what Shearman thinks they ought to do.

And here is Prof. Mike Hulme:

HULME: Some of the deep green movement would buy into this – that actually climate change is the best opportunity that we have got in order to get our political goal of a more egalitarian, localist, less consumer driven society onto the table. And we’ve seen over 40 or 50 years different tactics I suppose from some of these deep greens, eco-socialists if you like, to drive forward this idea and climate change is the latest and is an opportunity.

Increasingly it seems to me judging from the kind of reactions I’m getting, people get so vexed at any hint of skepticism, not because they feel it is contradicting established science, but because it challenges the religious conviction that the modern world of technology and growing populations is just plain wrong and doomed anyway. That’s what they really mean by “denialist”- not just someone who questions cutting CO2 even with no good alternatives to fossil fuels, but anyone who questions the climate of doom.

Well worth listening to the whole episode.

Posted in climate change, Environment | 2 Comments

Delingpole Dilutes his message

After Delingpole’s performance on the BBCs’ Science Under Attack a couple of weeks’ ago, it was very surprising to read him come out in defense of homeopathy:

For cancer, I daresay chemotherapy or radiotherapy may offer better outcomes than extract of belladonna. For piles — I speak from experience — surgery on the NHS is just the ticket. And if I were going to the tropics, I still think I’d personally place more faith in malaria pills and hep B jabs than I would in the ‘natural’ alternative. But as a general principle, when it comes to complementary medicine my sympathies are with the Prince of Wales (unusually) and with another, more famous prince: ‘There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.’

There seem to be multiple layers of confusion one over another at work in JD’s brain here. Maybe a good place to start would be Tim Minchin’s classic Storm which also makes good use of the “heaven and earth” quote.

Delingpole basically repeats many of the logical fallacies that quacks use all the time to defend their malpractice: science has been wrong before, science deosnt know everything, science is involved in witchhunts, what’s the harm?, science should keep an open mind etc etc..

James should be reminded that anecdotes are not evidence, and it might be pointed out to him that if we are not to trust the scientific methods employed in drug testing, then anyone could market absolutely any”cure” regardless of the evidence and sell it to the unsuspecting public- which is pretty much what does happen in “alternative” medicine. (And we might remind him that there is no such thing as “alternative medicine”, just medicine that works.)

What is so surprising about this stance is when we think back to the BBC interview in which Sir Paul Nurse used the analogy of trusting the science in cancer cures compared to trusting the “consensus” in climate science. Granted, Delingpole accepts that homeopathy doesnt work for more serious conditions, which does
rather undermine his position of “keeping an open mind”; but had he wanted to he could have made the case that medical research on the efficacy of treatments is surely far more robust than climate science if only because it is far more straightforward: for each treatment and condition there is in principle only one variable, does it work or not? Find a representative group of people with similar symptoms, randomly divide them including a control group, blind and double-blind, count the results and there you are.

This is especially easy to do with homeopathy as it involves taking a pill and has been done hundreds of times and if there was a positive result to be had from homeopathy it is reasonable to assume it would have been found by now, just as some herbs have indeed been found to be useful using just such a method.

In addition, belief in homeopathy requires the suspension of the laws of physics, because as sure as eggs is eggs homeopathy is just water, just like water that I wave my hands over going “yabba-dabba-do” is still just water.

So we really can be pretty sure that homeopathy doesn’t work;

Climate science on the other hand involves many variables and many different scientific disciplines, and the results can only be compared over the long-term, with no easy way to run a repeatable experiment with controls. Then you are confronted with the risk assessment and the tricky process of trying to predict the future.

So Delingpole really does undermine his protestations after that show that there is no “war on science” because if there was, climate skeptics would also be attacking medical science etc. and now here he is doing just that himself, aligning himself with Prince Charles no less whom he has previously said would be the one person you would not want on your side.

The comparison with medical science is relevant also because some skeptics argue that the rigor of medical research far exceeds that in climate science. Michael Crichton wrote on the subject

It’s 1991, I am flying home from Germany, sitting next to a man who is almost in tears, he is so upset. He’s a physician involved in an FDA study of a new drug. It’s a double-blind study involving four separate teams – one plans the study, another administers the drug to patients, a third assess the effect on patients, and a fourth analyzes results. The teams do not know each other, and are prohibited from personal contact of any sort, on peril of contaminating the results. This man had been sitting in the Frankfurt airport, innocently chatting with another man, when they discovered to their mutual horror they are on two different teams studying the same drug. They were required to report their encounter to the FDA. And my companion was now waiting to see if the FDA would declare their multi-year, multi-million-dollar study invalid because of this contact. [bold added] For a person with a medical background, accustomed to this degree of rigor in research, the protocols of climate science appear considerably more relaxed. A striking feature of climate science is that it’s permissible for raw data to be “touched,” or modified, by many hands. Gaps in temperature and proxy records are filled in. Suspect values are deleted because a scientist deems them erroneous. A researcher may elect to use parts of existing records, ignoring other parts. Sometimes these adjustments are necessary, sometimes they are questionable. Sometimes the adjustments are documented, sometimes not. But the fact that the data has been modified in so many ways inevitably raises the question of whether the results of a given study are wholly or partially caused by the modifications themselves.

At the end of the day, James should really have to admit if homeopathy works, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. Hell, even catastrophic man-made climate change could be true!

Posted in General | 1 Comment

Climate alarmism and the Goddess: reflections on a visit to ThinkorSwim

If John Gibbons had any intention of trying to allay my fears that there is a strong ideological basis to much climate change activism when he accepted my recent post on climate skeptics, this was quickly forgotten. John’s appraisal of the post in the comments is that it is “a poorly argued crypto-denialist piece.”

I’m not quite sure what a “crypto-denialist” is but I think it means someone who claims to accept the science of AGW but actually does not- in other words, a fraud. John’s supporters also joined in with plenty of personal attacks and ad hominems:

Continue reading

Posted in Atheism, climate change, collapse, Peak Oil, Science and Rationaltiy | 4 Comments

Climate Change: Will the Real Skeptics Please Stand Up?

Update 16-02-11: a slightly revised version of this post is now on ThinkorSwim where a lively discussion ensues…

Update: Sept. 4th 2011- the post at ThinkorSwim was taken down, along with another interesting discussion- I have posted the comments from there here.

Last week’s BBC Horizon progamme Science under attack featured the new President of the Royal Society Professor Nurse investigate the mindset of those who would question the “scientific consensus” on climate change, including an interview with acerbic Telegraph journalist James Delingpole. (Available here on youtube if you are not in the UK.)

Poor old James. He certainly seemed to get as bit lost during the interview and was extremely upset with the Twitter comments of well-known skeptics Ben Goldacre and Simon Singh (see Singh’s response here).

The “scoop” in the interview comes when Nobel prize-winner Nurse tries to explain the concept of scientific consensus to Delingpole, using the analogy of consensus in cancer treatments: Delingpole faltered, looked rather shocked like he had never thought of that before, and objected that the analogy was unfair. Someone in his position should certainly have been used to debating such points; Nurse gave him the perfect opportunity to argue that there is no consensus, but he flumped it. Continue reading

Posted in climate change, Genetic Engineering, Science and Rationaltiy | 21 Comments

The Economics of Happiness

The new film from Helena Norberg-Hodge The Economics of Happiness was premiered in UCC last night to a full house, with Helena herself arriving in time to join a panel discussion afterwards.

I met Helena over 10 years ago in Dublin where I remember debating her on whether the people of Ladakh, where she has based her organisation the International Society for Ecology and Culture, really were happier than us in the west as she seemed to think, and whether their “consciousness” was really more advanced than our own, as she maintained.

Why I wondered, if that was the case, did they appear to have no premonition of the problems that might accrue once the Evil Modern World was let in. Apparently their culture was so fragile that not only could they do nothing to stop it but the whole fabric of their society fell apart as soon as it encountered consumerism, commercial advertising and globalisation.

In this new film, I was surprised to see some of the material from Norberg-Hodge’s earlier film Ancient Futures- Learning from Ladakh simply recycled as she recounts once again the story of an early visit to a Ladakh village where she asked a young man to show her the poor houses in the village. After thinking for a while he responds that there are not really any poor houses; but revisiting the same village 10 years later, after the arrival of tourism and their western values, she overhears the same man complain, “oh, we Ladakhis, we are so poor”.

It is a poignant story and the message is one of changing perceptions in a changing world. This must have made a particularly strong impression on Helena as she worked as a translator in Ladakh when visitors from the outside were rare, and had the unusual experience of seeing an ancient culture transformed almost before her eyes in just a few years as the modern world moved in for the first time.

ISEC has a twin approach to this issue of perception and the problem of dissatisfaction engendered by advertising: one is to take westerners to the villages where they can stay for a while and live with the locals on working on the farms. This brings in an income, but perhaps more importantly, helps with the Ladakhi’s self-esteem as they come to understand how valued their farming life-style, traditional community and local crafts are to disaffected post-modernists from the west.

More interestingly still, ISEC has arranged to take Ladakhis who had never previously left their villages to visit the west where they are wowed out by washing machines and other gadgets but also get the message that behind the bright lights and glitz the west has serious social problems unknown in back home. When they return their message is: “The west is not all it’s cracked up to be. Don’t go down that path.”

This is a very interesting take on East meets West and there is much to be learned from it but I’m not sure I take the same message that Helena presents in the new film. In fact, although there is a partial truth here, it is a blatant over-simplification with some glaring errors and misrepresentations.

Clive Hamilton is one of the interviewees and his message is: “Material wealth has never brought us happiness.” Excuse me? This is a central and prevalent myth of the environmental movement: poor people are happier. They have community, family, traditions- things we have lost and yearn for. There are certainly serious and real problems caused by affluence, which may include depression, but they are trivial in comparison to the problems of poverty. The Ladakhis do look very appealing to the neurotic romantic westerner who has so much mobility they are always feeling homesick, and a volunteer holiday working on a farm there for a few weeks could be a great thing to do, but we do not actually want to trade places with them. The lack of mobility in traditional communities would stifle us and we would I think find it more like a prison if we didnt know we had a plane ticket out of there.

(There are studies that suggest we dont get much happier beyond a certain level of wealth, but we still get a little happier; I think it may be the wealth of the wider society that would count here, the availability of expensive surgery perhaps when we need it, that would make a difference also.)

Nor would we be likely to admire the feudal political system, or the complete lack of any opportunities apart from those designated by circumstance at birth, the vagaries of the weather causing sporadic crop yields (shame about all that cheap subsidised food coming on the new road in smelly trucks, but it might save you from going hungry in a bad year) or the complete absence of that other Evil product of globalisation and modern technology, modern medicine and such things as hip replacements (my Mother just had her second at 85 years of age, now she’s like Riverdance).

(I havn’t been to Ladakh, but trekking in Nepal 20 years ago I was struck by how often I was stopped by locals who showed me wounds and sores or sick children and implored me for medicine. They wanted western medicine because they knew it worked.)

The film’s central message is: globalisation and the modern world are terrible; traditional communities are happier; we need an entirely new approach based on localisation. Not complete self-reliance, we are told, but local needs should come first, starting with local food, but also decentralised renewable energy in the form of wind and photovoltaic.

The latter point about energy is the most ridiculous part of the film. Who in their right minds in making general proposals of -not just renewables- but decentralised renewables? I myself do live off grid like that and I’m not advocating it!

Never mind that these technologies are absolutely the product of globalisation, they could scarcely be created locally, and mostly are manufactured in China using probably quite polluting processes that require rare Earth metals of which China has 95% of the world’s supply;

or that running decentralised energy systems to any extent is basically prohibited currently by limitations in storage- batteries- which is still very costly, and that such systems could only supply relatively very small amounts of power.

There is a big emphases on food of course. Vandana Shiva is there telling us that “our research” has proved that small farms consistently deliver 3-5x the yield of- what? large scale conventional farms? I think not, but one of the problems with films like this is that references are rather forgotten so it is hard to check. But anyway, all that “science” and “evidence” stuff is all part of the problem, innit? After all we are also talking a crisis of the Human Spirit, one really should try to avoid THINKING too much.

Conspicuously absent in the film was any mention of Genetic Engineering but in her brief talk afterwards Helena came out with the old canard about “for-profit seeds that have terminator genes in them.” Crikey, do these globe-trotting super-greenies not bother to read even basic information about the stuff they are promoting? Doesnt she listen to Skepteco??

Arch-doomer Richard Heinberg is also featured, claiming that globalisation is propelling us into a “universal famine”- forgetting perhaps that historically agrarian cultures have always been subject to intermittent famines, and the Green Revolution- which Shiva and Norberg-Hodge would be completely opposed to- has succeeded in more than keeping abreast of population and the incidence of famines has declined since the 1980s.

There are some contentious points about localisation made by Goldsmith in the film: “food miles” are not such a big component in food, especially if coming by sea (airfreight is another matter); but there are other difficulties with localisation of food: in a famine, you cannot just import food from somewhere else unless you have a global economy functioning; and some areas are better suited to some crops than others, so local food might lead to less choice.

Farmers markets are much promoted in the film of course and in the discussion afterwards, but it is questionable that lots of people driving to a farmers market as may be the case involves less “food miles” than them all walking to a central supermarket. And one other issue noticeably missing from any discussion: farmers markets, like organic food, tend to be more expensive, often supplying fancy artisan food rather than basics. Delicious, healthy, wonderful, I love farmers’ markets, but they are inevitably criticized as being middle-class and elitist, and cheap food is surely one of the great successes of globalisation.

Farming as a career is appealing to some, but I think of the essay written a few years ago by Heinberg himslef calling for 40 million more farmers in a post-peak oil world in America alone- this would completely reverse the trend of the last 50-60 years. Most people do not want to be subsistence farmers, it is too hard. I really wonder how many in the packed audience would really want to give up their electronic gadgets and all the other trappings of globalisation they benefit from and work on a farm for the rest of their lives, because for the localisation project to gain any real traction, must of them would have to do just that.

And would Helena really want to give up her jet-setting lifestyle of international travel as award-winning author and environmentalist and become grounded permanently and localised, perhaps in a remote village in Ladakh -or anywhere- herself rather than just romanticizing the lives of others?

There are important lessons to be learned from Ladakh, including issues around community, how we treat our old people and how to manage development; but this film has no depth and just regurgitates the same old over-simplified post-modern dirge we have been hearing for years.

Posted in community, Environment, Food, Renewable Energy | 8 Comments

Dan Dennett in Cork: What should replace religion?

“Are there any believers in the Rapture here tonight?” asked an entertaining Professor Dan Dennett to a packed lecture hall in UCC last night, “and if so, can I have your car?”

Dennett is Professor of Philosophy at Tufts University and one of the infamous Four Horsemen of the so-called New Atheists, along with Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens and Sam Harris. He is the author of many books including Breaking the Spell- Religion as a Natural Phenomenon

The Professor began by inviting us to consider what is likely to happen to religion in the future: will religions grow and take over the world completely? will they fade away into insignificance? will they morph into what he calls “creedless moral teams?” will they gradually fall into disfavour rather like drink-driving has- “friends don’t let their friends drive their lives by religion” ? or the final option: Judgment Day arrives (hence the Rapture quote above).

Whatever happens, argued Dennett, religions will change more in the next 10 years than they have in the past 100, the reason he gave being the internet and modern communications making it much harder for religious leaders to hold their flocks together with ancient dogmas.

But while Dennett clearly sees religions- or organised “traditional” religions- declining in influence, with the prospect of churches and mosques becoming museums in the future not unthinkable (even the Vatican?!), the main point of his talk was to consider what are the things religion does well which are good and valuable, and what will replace these functions if religions disappear?

Dennett listed Hope-Love-Beauty-Joy-Moral Teamwork-justice and Freedom as qualities religions have traditionally been very good at providing. One might question all or any of these of course- Justice and Freedom??- but historically religions have been the only organising bodies that could have provided even a semblance of these things, which doesnt mean they have always been successful.

In particular, Dennett feels that religions have often been the only organisations that take in the homeless and the lost in society, and secular alternatives have not usually had this as a priority.

This is partly why Dennett’s insight in Breaking the Spell is so important: “Belief in a Deity is optional” ie, a lot of “belief” or faith expressed in religions are actually secondary to the social and communal functions of the churches, and there are in fact a lot of atheist priests and laypeople.

Ceremony is also important, and Dennett played some secular “Gospel” music by Orlando Napier which seemed to leave the majority of the young student audience rather bemused: I was slightly embarrassed to be one of only about 4 in the audience of 4-500 hundred who raised their hands to say they actually liked the music!

Moral Teamwork is something that would be fulfilled by possibly new organisations dedicated to the Love of truth and Truthfulness- Dennett here alluded to aspects of the skeptics community such as Snopes but interestingly mentioned TED as providing some of these functions to a secular online community.

“People want to be good” Dennett concluded, “and the sooner we create institutions that can do better than religion, the sooner the more toxic elements of religion will fade away.”

There followed a lively question and answer session and I was lucky enough to get in my own question, which was to ask to what extent does the professor think New Age Religion might be filling the gap of organised religions like Christianity in the West; and to what extent could environmentalism be seen as a secular religion, as some of its most vocal critics claim?

In response to the latter point, Dennett agreed that some of the more extreme aspects of the environmental movement- animal rights activists for example- could be seen as religious- he said he thought some people just seem to have a need to hold banners and take action in defence of some cause or other;

but rather lamely (I thought) finished by saying New Age religion is just “not very harmful” which I found surprising, given issues around quack medicine, anti-vaccination etc., but the time had run out by then.

No doubt it depends partly on one’s perspective- although Ireland provides excellent examples of all that is wrong with religion, I imagine an American confronting extreme right-wing Christian Fundamentalism might see things differently.

All in all an enjoyable evening with the great man, and many thanks to UCC Atheists for staging what one person claimed to be the “largest gathering of the non-religious ever in Cork”.

Posted in Atheism | 4 Comments

On Pascals’ Wager and the Precautionary Principle

Following on from the last post, a review of Simon Fairlie’s discussion of the the pros and cons of meat eating, I wanted to pick up on an issue he raises which I had not discussed, but which deserves more consideration.

In Chapter 13 of Meat: A Benign Extravagance Fairlie discusses the impact of methane production from ruminants such as cows on global warming. As I said in the review, Fairlie considers the claims that this is significant to be a ruse by those who would rather see a push towards more intensive farming methods, and sidesteps the real culprit of greenhouse gas emissions, which is of course the burning of fossil fuels.

However, his take on climate change- the reasons he gives for accepting the reality of AGW, did strike me as curious:

I am not a climate sceptic, but that is not to say that I am convinced that 90% of climate scientists must be right (any more than I believe we live in an expanding universe born out of a big bang just because 90% of scientists think so.) I accept the global warming discourse because of Pascal’s Wager, otherwise known as the precautionary principle; and because I believe it is an appropriate ideology (or religion if you prefer) for humanity at a time when we are clearly placing too much pressure on the environment through excessive population and consumption. In this chapter and the next I therefore take the climate change scenario, as modeled by the IPCC, as a premise.

I find this an extraordinary position to take, but I dont want to pick on Simon Fairlie: what I am wondering is, how many others accept AGW for essentially spurious philosophical or religious reasons- rather than because it is supported by the science?

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Posted in Atheism, climate change, Genetic Engineering | 6 Comments

Meat and Grass in Permaculture

Book Review: Meat- A Benign Extravagance

Simon Fairlie

Chelsea Green 2010

pbck 322pp

My name is Graham, I’m 46 years old and I am a born-again carnivore.

Like many of my generation, my first act of rebellion was to become a vegetarian sometime around the age of 14, following in my sister’s footprints and unfairly taking out my concerns for other species on my mother’s cooking, which was mainly of the traditional variety of English food, including a wide range of meat dishes.

“Rich westerners’ eating meat is the equivalent of eating the children of Africa, South America and Asia” admonished a Marxist text that came into my hands around that time, making a profound impression on me: we in the developed rich world were taking more than our fair share of the global pie, and starvation in other countries was the end result.

Clearly we had blood on our hands, of both the animals themseleves and that of the poor. The reasons for this were that it takes several times more land and resources to feed omnivores than it does vegetarians; in a world where many were brought up to “eat what I was given because there are starving in Africa” meat became a symbol for extravagance and exploitation.

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Posted in Biodiversity, climate change, Food, Permaculture | 43 Comments

Christmas Trees

Seasons’ Greetings to all!

Posted in Trees | Leave a comment

Into the Wild: a Parable for our Times

One of the most enduring quasi-religious myths in the environmental movement is that our percieved problems- the percieved crisis in the modern world- stems from a separation from nature.

We were born in pre-history, an integral part of Mother Nature who nurtured us and taught us the Wisdom of the wilds, plant spirit medicine, and much more.

Being connected to Nature, so this story goes, was a birth rite robbed from us when we opened Pandora’s box and started unpacking nature’s laws with science, which then unleashed technology- the very opposite of Nature, with which we have created what we call The Modern World.

And, according to this powerful story, the modern world is everything that nature is not: mechanical, devoid of emotion, rational, intellectual, cold and meaningless. Continue reading

Posted in collapse, community, Environment, Gardens, Human Ecology, Science and Rationaltiy, survivalism | 12 Comments