The Mockery of Evidence-based Science July 23, 2009
Posted by Graham in : Health, Science and Rationaltiy, climate change , 12commentsBrilliant article here by John Gibbons in The Times making the same point that I have been making, linking climate change denial with Quackery and other types of pseudoscience.
When science is reduced to a game, anyone can play. Scientists say the arctic ice sheet is disappearing; I say they are stuffy old sausages; and besides, the world is actually getting colder. Maybe it is all about sunspots, or whatever other discredited theory can be shoehorned to match my intellectual whims. We trusted science to deliver dramatic improvements in health and life expectancy, as well as genuine technological advances . Now, at the time of our greatest peril, we have turned to the quacks, blow-hards and snake-oil salesmen. As Samual Beckett observed: “We are all born mad; some remain so”.
Fair to play to John for bringing this issue out into the mainstream press- and he gets extra marks for endorsing the brilliant Ben Goldacre.
Oats Update July 21, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentA number of us gathered on the Sheep’s head peninsular last week to visit the oats that have been sown there by local farmers asd part of the Bantry Community Supported Agriculture project, initiated by John Dolan.
The field of oats looked great and certainly have a great spot overlooking the south coast on the stunning Sheep’s Head peninsular. People were encouraged to bring scarecrows or better still dead crows to help protect the crop,
Harvest will be around the end of the month, and will be done partially with scythes.
Above: the oats have a great spot
At last a Scientific Analysis of Self-help Methods July 21, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentSelf-help books are big business and the self-help section in many bookstores attract more traffic than any other section.
But how much of it really works? All those books from “experts” telling you “this book will change your life” still keep selling even though there is very little evidence any of the advice offered is of any use beyond temporarily making you feel better by buying the book.
Richard Wiseman, author of Quirkology: The Curious Science of Everyday Lives has now written a book that provides the best scientific evidence for all these techniques: 59seconds- Think a Little. Change a Lot.
Amongst the casualties are Positive Affirmations and Brainstorming; and psychoanalysis has also precious little evidence to support it. More useful it seems might be writing your own eulogy and “expressive writing”.
Faith in Transition July 12, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General, Peak Oil, Science and Rationaltiy, Transition Towns, consciousness , 5commentsUpdate: 16/07/09
See Dan Dennett on “Belief in belief” here
Updates: I’ve just put a couple of updates for clarification and a couple more links. I’ve marked them in the text.
I also want to say, whatever about my concerns regarding the ideology behind Transition, there is heaps of great work being done in the movement, which is hugely influential in exploring responses to Peak Oil and Climate Change. I am particularly looking forward to reading the “Can Totnes District Feed Itself” report- I hope it has some recipes in it!
I paid a visit to a forum on Transition and permaculture over at Transition Culture recently- wow, I only just got out in time before they lynched me! Apparently, post-modern lunacy is alive and well in the Transition Land where in a very interesting discussion on Transition, Permaculture, inclusiveness and the like, it became apparent that some things are just not on the table for discussion- yes you guessed it, yours truly raised the old chestnut of the evils of faith and all Hell broke loose. I quickly found myself embroiled in a disappear-up-your-own backside post- modern attack on my freedom of speech and left the forum just before the hounds were let out to accuse me of “bashing people of faith”. (more…)
Orlov: Only Aliens Can Save us from Collapse July 5, 2009
Posted by Graham in : Peak Oil, Population, Transition Towns, collapse , 12commentsThe view expressed in recently reviewed books like Holmgren’s Energy Scenarios and Chamberlin’s The Transition Timeline is that peak oil will be followed by a long, slow decline- Energy Descent- rather than an abrupt collapse.
For an alternative view, Dmitri Orlov, author of the acclaimed Reinventing Collapse puts the case for sudden collapse very well in his recent post The Slope of Dysfunction
What, then, of our canonical Peak Oil scenario, which is that global crude oil (and natural gas condensate) production will rise to a lofty peak sometime soon, and then gently waft down, over several decades, until, by the year 2050 or some other distant date, less than half as much oil will be produced globally? Ever eager to present a hopeful vision, I will say here and now that I believe this scenario to be entirely plausible… but it requires alien intervention. As Russian oil production was saved by foreigners, so Earthling oil production must be be saved by aliens from outer space.
Orlov’s basic premise is that sudden collapse can only be mitigated once a country’s indigenous oil has peaked by making up the difference with increased imports, something that will not be possible after global oil peak.
The Soviet Union provides a historical model for this-
“There, production declined 43% between 1987 and 1996. The decline was arrested and reversed by the introduction of foreign investment and technology”.
It could be argued that the Soviet Union is not a good model because of other reasons such as its political system, but in fact, as he shows in his book, parts of the West, especially North America, are much less well placed to withstand abrupt declines in oil supply.
If Orlov is correct, our efforts at creating Energy Descent Plans and Transition Strategies would be better spent flashing SOS signals up into the night sky or hanging around those crop circles in the hope their alien authors will return with a few barrels of crude.
It will be very hard to mitigate any such sudden collapse, but Orlov links oil peak directly with financial collapse, which he predicts will be followed by political collapse, and then social collapse; these scenarios could be just around the corner, judging by the gathering speed of financial and political decline.
All is not lost however, and to read Orlov’s unique and side-ways look at how we might prepare (and how we might not) essential reading is here in his adress to last month’s Feasta Conference in Dublin Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation.
See especially slide no. 19 on this post “Collapse” or “Transition” ? for his sardonic view of the Transition movement.
Slide no. 2 helps explain why I take issue with Chamberlin’s views on population in my review of The Transition Timeline. On paper of course it may be possible to argue as he does that if we all did the right thing and reduced our consumption to, say, half of what it is now- the level of energy consumption of Cuba- reducing population might not be so urgent; in reality, it is incredibly difficult for us to voluntarily reduce our energy consumption. Most people living at the level of Cubans would love to increase their consumption and have an easier life!
I probably have a lower energy cosumption thatn average for ireland (not by much, mind you) and earn my living teaching how to reduce consumption, but the one thing I could do right now that would make a significant difference would be to get rid of the van, something that is not currently an option for financial reasons.
See also the comment from Andy Wilson at the end of the Transition Timeline review -we may be heading for just of 1/10 energy availability by 2040 which would be closer to the per capita consumption of India, not Cuba. Great for a gap year back-packing trip, but not something most of us would choose voluntarily no matter how motivated we are.
