The Transition Timeline June 29, 2009
Posted by Graham in : Health, Peak Oil, Population, Powerdown, Science and Rationaltiy, Transition Towns, book review, climate change, community , 6comments
Book Review:
The Transition Timeline
for a local, resilient future
Shaun Chamberlin
Forward by Rob Hopkins
190 pp pbk
Chelsea Green 2009
The follow-up to Rob Hopkins’ seminal The Transition Handbook uses the method of “backcasting” from an envisioned future from which we create a timeline of how the transition to a more local, resilient world unfolded.
The first part goes through four different scenarios presented as “cultural stories” roughly along the same lines as the scenarios we are familiar with from Holmgren’s Future Scenarios, this time under the headings:
-Denial
-Hitting the Wall
-The Impossible Dream
-The Transition Vision
The transition approach is to look at these possible futures in terms of the cultural stories that we tell ourselves, the idea being that we have the power to make our own cultural stories and thereby empower ouselves to guide the future to a more desirable outcome:
Human Nature is the ability to choose our own path
The second part of the book takes a deeper look at the Transition Vision in the five areas of population and demographics; Food and Water; Electricity and Energy; travel and transport; Health and Medicine.
Each of these sections presents a thorough and well-researched overview of the current situation, ending with a Timeline of how we reached a more desirable situation by 2027.
At the back of the book Chamberlin states that “This book has not attempted to quantify the energy/emissions footprint of each aspect of the Transition Vision, but this represents a critical avenue for further work.”
Unfortunatley, this lack of analysis seriously compromises the usefulness of the book, as the projected scenarios may be widely implausible or purely aspirational. (more…)
Forest Gardening in the Irish Times June 22, 2009
Posted by Graham in : Food, Forest Gardening, Permaculture , add a commentWe were fortunate enough to have Irish Times columnist John Gibbons attend our last permaculture course in Cloughjordan, and he had a great write up in his column last week:
Permaculture offers one vision of a future where human ingenuity and adaptability will allow us to survive, and indeed thrive, in the age after oil, writes JOHN GIBBONS
High time agriculture got back to its healthy roots
IF YOU go down to the woods today, prepare to be surprised. A new movement is taking root that in a low-key way challenges almost everything we think we know about agriculture and our relationship with food. Last week’s column asked: how can we feed ourselves without ready access to the fossil fuels upon which conventional agriculture depends utterly? It wasn’t meant to be a rhetorical question.
The basis of all agriculture is soil. Healthy soil positively teems with life, including earthworms, fungi and essential bacteria. Mature topsoil is the product of hundreds, even thousands of years of slow growth, decay and decomposition. Within human timescales, soil is essentially a non-renewable resource.
The plough has shaped human history even more profoundly than the sword. Where for 10,000 years we depended on a delicate balance of nutrients to maintain the soil upon which our civilisations stood, the energy revolution and industrial farming in the last century saw us throw away that rule book. Full Article here
Solstice Solar Array June 21, 2009
Posted by Graham in : Renewable Energy , 2commentsI just wired up a new photovoltaic array- an auspicious time to do it on the longest- and so far the sunniest- day of the year.
Delivering a cool 600 watts of raw solar power at 24volts, the impressive bank of solar electric panels represents a true powering up here at Derryduff.
The panels cost me about 2000 euros on ebay- about 2/3 of the new price; they were originally from Surface Power.
I also have a bank of 4 Rolls batteries (244Ah each) bought from Wind and Sun. Cost: 1300 euros.
The 2.5Kw inverter is from Victron; I bought it a few years ago for around 1500 euros.
The controller is a ProStar -30 from Morningstar, supplied by the Sustainability Institute for 85 euros.
Add in 24v compact fluorescent lights, cables and connectors and you are looking at over 5000 euros for this system. (more…)
Permaculture Mandala garden at Dunhill Eco-Park June 14, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentI returned to the Dunhill Eco-Park in Waterford at the weekend for a follow-up to the permaculture course I did there last September.
This time we were joined by 20 participants who learned about permaculture gardening techniques and forest garden design.
We then constructed a Mandala Garden based on the design by one of Bill Mollison’s students described in the Permaculture Designers Manual.
The area was mulched with newspaper and straw, and herbs and shrubs were planted in.
The mandala will still need a lot of plants to go in it to make it more beautiful and productive, but I think we all agreed it looked very fine by the end of the day.
Many thanks to all the course participants for their enthusiasm and hard work; and especially to course organiser Samantha Richardson and the staff of Dunhill for making it all possible.
Future Scenarios June 11, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General, Human Ecology, Peak Oil, Permaculture, Powerdown, book review, climate change, collapse , 7commentsBook Review- 
Future Scenarios How Communities Can adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change
David Holmgren
Chelsea Green 2009
When I first saw David Holmgren’s Future Scenarios talk and slide at a permaculture design course in Slovenia in 2005 I was still quite new to the concept of peak oil and listened transfixed at what seemed to be a detailed vision of the future: not precise predictions but an outline of four possible scenarios that may unfold over the next generation and beyond as human societies adapt to the consequences of the peaking and decline of our primary energy sources, peak oil and natural gas.
A couple of years ago David continued his explorations of these issues first examined in detail in his earlier book, Permaculture- Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability (2002) with a new website Future Scenarios.
Now in book form, Future Scenarios provides one of the most succinct and lucid accounts of the possible paths that await us as we start the new era of energy descent.
Holmgren is in agreement with John Michael Greer that while much mainstream discussion about energy futures centres on the first two of his scenarios- “Techno-explosion” and “Techno Stability”, and the doomer/survivalist meme amongst the peak oil community tends to focus on the fourth scenario of “lifeboats” or versions of collapse, the more likely would be the third possibility of “Energy Descent”- a more gradual adaptation to diminishing energy supplies resulting in a contracting economy and reversion to technological simplicity that may play out over many generations.
This pathway of earth Stewardship is assumed by the permaculture agenda- an adaptive approach in which human scale design and general sustainability practices are progressively implemented and are informed by the energy flows through human society and ecology, and the energy base of our economies is clearly understood.
The real problem is that this more likely future is currently still marginalised as the mainstream culture refuses to abandon its faith in the myth of progress- a belief that rests on the mistaken assumption that gains in human welfare over the past few hundred years have been as a result of some teleological process propelling us forwards, or of a general increasing application of our genious for technological improvements and innovation, while ignoring the underlying reosurce base that has made all this possible: technology is merely different ways of using energy that is usually dug out of holes in the ground.
The likelihood that this transition will be to one of less energy is such an anathema to the psychological foundations and power elites of modern societies that it is constantly misinterpreted, ignored, covered up, or derided. Instead we see geopolitical maneuvering around energy resources, including proxy and real wars to control dwindling reserves and policy gymnastics to somehow make reducing carbon emissions the new engine of economic growth.
Holmgren categorises the scenarios according to the varying potential severity of peak oil and climate change and how these tow factors interplay:
- Brown Tech- slow oil decline, fast climate change;
- Green Tech- slow oil decline, slow climate change;
- Earth Steward- fast oil decline, slow climate change;
- Lifeboats- fast oil decline, fast climate change
These typologies may necessarily be too simplistic- so many other factors may also come into play, such as financial collapse which, while no doubt linked to both peak oil and climate change, may impact in ways as yet unforeseen. However, Holmgren provides a deeper analyses by showing how the scenarios may be “nested” one within the other- each acting on the different scales of the household, local, national and international economies; or may take a stepped form over time- attempts by governments to keep the system going a little longer by following a Brown Tech path may hasten an eventual collapse; equally, an attempt to switch to green tech may result in the adoption of Earth Stewardship further down the line as renewables fail to fill the gap left by oil. The scenarios may also play out differently in different parts of the world.
Throughout Holmgren’s analysis is informed by ecological systems, the foundation for his permaculture principles, as he sees how energy dynamics in nature may be mirrored in human socieites:
Natural ecosytems tend to maintain homeostasis under stress through the allocation of stored resources. if the conditions continue to deteriorate, then further stress can fracture the homeostasis. If the stress involves a reduction in energy availability, the system may collapse. But total collapse and system disintegration are rare, at least in the short term. More typically a restabalization occurs at a lower level of energy processing and organisational complexity. The new homeostasis will typically be stable for some time before declining energy availability precipitates another crisis. This may also be a model for how human societies respond to the crisis of resource and energy decline.
Holmgren is keen to paint a more positive vision of the future in the earth Stewardship scenario- “conditions for ordinary people may actually improve when resources devoted to maintaining societal complexity are freed for meeting more basic needs”- a reference to the diminishing returns provided by endless growth.
There is a desperate need to recast energy descent as a positive process that can free people from the strictures and dysfunctions of growth economics and consumer culture. This is now apparent to many people around the world and is far more fundamental than a public relations campaign to paint a black sky blue. It is a necessary [process to provide a sense of hope and connection to fundamental human values expressed by every traditional culture throughout human history, among them, that the prusuit of materialism is a false god.
No doubt materialism without bounds, as expressed in modern society in unending growth and the development of consumer culture, is a false god; however, I am not sure that an awareness of this has always been present in every traditional culture. Holmgren here seems to betray a romantic view of the past, at odds with the ecological basis for his work, which is itself of course fundamentally materialistic. What seems more likely is the insights of anthropology and evolutionary psychology: that we have as a species a fundamental propensity towards getting more stuff, as is evidenced by the ready emergence in traditional societies of cargo cults after contact with the west.
This weakness is apparent in his assessment of the corresponding ideologies and belief systems that accompany the scenarios: he seems to equate secular humanism with the materialistic ideology of “Brown Tech” and suggests that these beliefs systems are inherently negative, giving rise to dysfunctional behaviours;
While the elites continue to be driven by a commitment to superrationalist beliefs, a sense of hollowness and lack of purpose characterizes the shrinking middle class, while fundamentalist religions and cults play a stronger role in the lives of the working and unemployed classes, partly through genuine reaction to the failures of modern humanism and partly manipulated by the elites to deflect anger and disenchantment.
While this may be very true, he compares this to a shift in values in “Green Tech”:
Civic culture strengthens where further transition toward nonmaterialistic society combines with the maturation of feminism and environmentalism, and a resurgence in indigenous and traditional cultural values.
It seems to me that there is a contradiction between “traditional values” -many of which may be parochial and overly conservative or reactionary – with post-modern feminist and environmental values; it is far from clear that they would be the same or even compatible.
Similarly, under “Earth Steward” Holmgren suggests that a “simplification in the material domain is seen as the opportunity for growth in the spiritual domain. There is a resurgence in leadership by women and a celebration of the feminine in nature and people”.
But what is the “spiritual” domain? This needs to be defined here becasue there is a vast range of possible interpretations. For the same reasons I have always had some difficulty with Holmgren’s domain of “Health and Spritual well-being” in the Permaculture Flower. I interpret it to mean “Health and Psychological/emotional well-being”. However, it is abundantly apparent that permaculture has become almost synonymous with New Age religion in many quarters, a reactionary and delusional trend that all permaculturalists should challenge strongly. Holmgren’s loose use of the word “spiritual” in this context, and his “celebration of the feminine” will inevitably be seen by many to sanctify pseudo-science and the worship of spirits and nebulous “energies”.
(Again “the feminine” and “feminine values” really needs to be defined: we are presumably not talking about the feminine values of Sex in the City; too often “the feminine” is associated with “the spiritual” in a quite meaningless way which I feel is rather patronizing to women.)
Here, Holmgren looses an opportunity to call for a celebration of secular humanism and rationalism- the most important legacy of the modern world, which will need to be protected less we fall back into a new dark age of superstition and delusion with energy descent.
Nor is it necessary to embody any kind of “earth spirituality” in order to foster more sustainable lifestyles- these should come of their own accord, naturally emerging from a scientific understanding of ecology and our place within it, combined with a simple sense of beauty and wonder at the natural world, unfettered by ideological presumptions.
There is a great danger within the environmental movement as a whole to replace the delusion of unending growth with the delusion of narcissistic spirituality, part of a wider failure to acknowledge the real gains of modernity through science.
For all this, Holmgren remains one of the most significant of contemporary thinkers, and Future Scenarios is an important contribution to peak oil literature, and one of the clearest assessments of the kind of world that awaits us.
Permaculture at The Village June 10, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General, Permaculture, Powerdown, community , add a commentLast weekend saw 17 participants attend a 2-day Introduction to permaculture course I gave at The Village in Cloughjordan, Co. Tipperary.
Workshop participants practice forest garden design…
…now they are planting and mulching for real…
It was a great weekend, despite the truly wintry weather on the Saturday, and a great opportunity to see how the Village project is progressing, with three houses currently under construction.
The next permaculture course here will be a Full 10-day Permaculture Certificate Design Course August 21st-30th. Please see “courses for 2009” page for details.
This course will also include a complete Powerdown Toolkit Training.
Tutors include: Graham Strouts, Davie Philip of the Irish Transition Network, Albert Bates of the Farm, Tenessee.
many thanks to Davie Philip for organising the event, and for all the great participants for taking part and making it possible, and most of all for staying awake through a whole day of classroom activities on the wet Saturday despite a very late campfire session Friday night!!
Roald Dahl on the death of his daughter from measles June 3, 2009
Posted by Graham in : Health, Science and Rationaltiy , add a commentAs the measles epidemic in Britain gathers pace, and the woo-woos who still do not acknowledge that their refuasal to vaccinate is not because of some higher spiritual knowledge, but simply ignorance brought about by bad science and an irresponsible media, this account by Roald Dahl on the dangers of measles makes sober reading.
It is not yet generally accepted that measles can be a dangerous illness. Believe me, it is. In my opinion parents who now refuse to have their children immunised are putting the lives of those children at risk.
Bamboo shoots for tea June 3, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentRecent comments on last years’ post on eating bamboo shoots came just as the new season is here- and we have been munching our way through this very useful vegetable with gusto.
Martin Crawford demonstrates harvesting bamboo shoots on his excellent new DVD- “A Forest Garden Year.
This really is a superb DVD by the way, showing many of the fascinating plants martin is growing in Dartington, as well as domenostrations of grafting, pollardeing and much more.
He recommends cutting the bamboo before the shoots grow more than about 12 inches, though I have found sometimes you can get away with a good bit more length before they go too woody.
Bland in taste on their own, and a little bit fiddly to prepare, but stir-fried with onions and soya sauce, and served with fish and other veg, make a delicious dish.
And no work entailed apart from harvesting -truly a great forest garden vegetable. Beware of where you plant it though- after several years, phllopstachys bisettii will have to go, having outgrown its space, reaching a height of about 15ft and spread the same- although it would be much more were i not harvesting.
I will move it further down the land where it can happily grow away to its hearts’ content without shading anything.
Birthing Yurt June 3, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General , add a comment
Here are a couple of photos of a new yurt I made and set up for for Cearbhuil up near mallow- who got it to have her new baby in in a few weeks time!
Hope it all goes really well and good luck with everything Cearbhuil.
Quite something to think that the first thing your new baby is likely to set eyes onas it enters the world is one of my yurt wheels!
By the way, my yurts also seem to be in great demand as bridal yurts- not for the ceremony but for the wedding night!
I will be supplying one for Marcus and Anne-Marie’s wedding this June 21st, following two weddings it served last year.
