Overpopulation? The Biggest Issue of your lifetime April 23, 2008
Posted by Graham in : Food, Overshoot, Population , trackbackBantry beekeeper Tim Rowe delivered his first public talk last Monday night in Bantry on a topic that has been preoccupying him for some time- the consequences of overpopulation.
This fascinating and enlightening talk took us through the issue facing the world as the human species runs riot and reaches more than 6.7 billion in numbers- each one needing energy, food, water and other resources.
Beginning with a brief and poignant look at some of the many species which have become extinct in the last generation, Tim then showed us graphically just how extraordinary and recent has been the rise in human numbers since the advent first of farming and then even more dramatically with the harnessing of fossil energy.
A common view is that population will continue to grow albeit at a slower rate, with it leveling out at around 8-9 billion sometime in the next 30-40 years.
The question is, how will this be possible, given that in addition to species extinction on a scale comparable with only a few other pre-human events in earth’s history, the sheer impact of having this many people on just one planet has been so immense that the ability of the planet to sustain even such an inventive creature as the human at such levels has been seriously impaired to the point of collapse. Topsoil, forests, marine resources, fresh water, and the lifeblood of modern society, oil, upon which we depend for most of our food, are in terminal decline worldwide and have been for at least 50 years- and that is the case even without factoring the likely effects of climate change over the next couple of decades. With everything else going down, how will population continue to rise for very much longer?
Taking us deeper into the darker side of human nature and experience, Tim then gave us a history lesson: famines have been a common occurrence throughout human history in most parts of the world. When people go hungry they may begin to act in ways thought barbaric by modern standards, with cannibalism being one common response found in perhaps all human societies when put to the test of starvation or survival.
These were stark reminders of how unusual the lives we in the rich west have lead have been. The past couple of generations of affluence and high energy lifestyles that the minority world has lead has created an illusion that it will continue forever, that this relatively cosseted and at times luxurious lifestyle perhaps is in some way our birthright. We have forgotten that no society is immune from collapse. Our escape from the daily or even seasonal pre-occupation of most of humanity- the daily quest for food and shelter- is but a mirage, a temporary respite from what must sometime be our destiny to contend with once again.
That time may not be far away. The extraordinary rise in oil prices and the possible peaking of world food supplies has lead to an escalation of hunger riots and export bans from around the world and in many cases in countries which the west is dependent on the put bread on our tables. With world food reserves at an all time low and the economy nose-diving, how long before we in West Cork have to deal with shortages or even hunger?
Tim presents us with two possible scenarios: on the one hand, Easter Island- which had devastated its natural resources by the time Europeans arrived in the 16th Century and reverted to a much simpler type of society than that which had been able to create the famous statues after its population had crashed; on the other, the extraordinary society of Tikopia which has retained much of its natural vegetation and biodiversity despite a high population density at least in part because of its unique policy of population control.
The message is clear and Tim left us to discuss the big question: will we have the wisdom, the leadership and the will to control our population- or suffer the fate of Easter Island and the many other socieites which have collapsed after over-shooting their resource base?
A lively discussion followed.
“Hands up who has got a months’ store of food?” “I wouldnt tell you if I had!” “Hands up who has 3 months’ store? 6 months’…? ” “Hands up who’s got a gun!”
One woman stated she had known about this since the 1960s and had made a choice not to have children. Several others seemed convinced that we will be inevitably over-run by millions of urban refugees from neighboring countries and further afield who will make a beeline for the abundant homesteads of west Cork and eat all our veggies.
Not everyone was in complete agreement with Tim’s analyses; for a few at least the information appeared to be new and perhaps shocking.
Some felt Tim should take his message to local politicians, maybe we can still effect change at the government level. Others felt this would be futile- we really have shown no ability historically to control our population and now it is too late.
I am inclined to agree. Community-based actions are of course the ideal; but we have to ensure that individually or on the neighborhood scale we have ourselves emergency provisions. This is something we can do something about for relatively small investment. It is certainly, futile to concern ourselves with the starving masses who may come to steal our food- this is something we have little control over.
Instead, we should discuss ways in which we can support each other in making whatever preparations we can. At this stage, this kind of personal preparation is more important than putting energy into a community where there is little if any appreciation of the extremely vulnerable situation we find ourselves in.
We cannot become like Tikopia any time soon, but Tim should be congratulated in putting together such a challenging presentation delivered with compassion to really make us think more deeply about the reality of the human condition and how it effects us on a very personal level.
Comments»
Glad to see another article discussing the much overlooked population issue. There is a good radio series available for download at the moment at http://freerangethought.com that discusses it also. Worth a listen.
i only recently crossed this subject. which makes me wonder, why do i know of global warming, the economic downturn, war in the middle east… but didn’t know about this, possible crucial subject and a defining issue of this century. people need to act