New Year Predictions January 6, 2009
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentIn the absence of any original predictions of my own I wish all zone5 readers a Happy new Year and refer you to John Pilger’s menu of good news to celebrate in 2009.
John Pilger, investigative reporter and film maker and author of “Heroes” and “The New Rulers of the World” has been one of my heroes for a long time, and I was delighted to hear a fascinating interview with him on RTE last week.
Pilger spoke about many things including his experiences as a young journalist of seeing Cambodian children suffering from the effects of Napalm and realising that the war was also a “laboratory” for napalm and other weapns such as cluster bombs and daisy cutters; and how Pol Pot could nevr have come to power in Cambodia had it not been for the prior devastating American bombardment of the country, reducing it to a desperate nation willing to follow extremeists who were the only group able to offer people anything at all.
His comments about the “Murdochisation” of the media and the shrinking space afforded independent journalists such as himself was also sobering, and lamented the effective blackout of news coverage in the West of the most exciting developments politically in Venezuela and much of South America, where the most progressive moves towards democracy are actually taking place.
However, like Naomi Klein he feels that “people are unstoppable”, that Murdoch’s media is not really popular, just the only alternative offered, but that there is a genuine widespread desire for change and authenticity, and people are generally much better informed than the media gives them credit for.
Here Comes the Summer December 29, 2008
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentIt may seem a little early for some but with the passing of the winter solstice and the lengthening days I am already making garden plans for next year, ordering seeds and even sowing vegetables- planted my crop of Elephant garlic from last year, sowed broad beans inside and even have a tray of nine-star perennial broccoli sprouting in the greenhouse. The weather has been cool but we have had some beautiful days of sunshine, enticing enough for even the most reluctant gardeners.
If you are looking for veggie seeds you can do no better than Brown Envelope Seeds who have a great selection this year. Looking through their catalogue I was particularly struck by the number of varieties that would merit planting for ornamental value alone- from the Crimson Flowered broad Bean, the Black magic Runner, to the bright Lights Swiss Chard with its bright orange and yellow stem, amazing Painted Mountain corn, and my own favourite the astonishing romanesco Broccoli- aka “Fractal Broccoli” - there is a feast here for the eyes as much for the belly.
Peak oil gloomers and doomers should not miss the gift box selections which include the “Armageddon” Pack with 10 packets of seeds, pencil and plant labels- emergency flares not included. Sure to be a popular choice in 2009!
Book Review: The Long Descent December 11, 2008
Posted by Graham in : Human Ecology, Overshoot, Peak Oil, Science and Rationaltiy, Tools and technology, book review, collapse, consciousness , 9comments
The Long Descent- A Users Guide to the End of the Industrial Age
John Michael Greer
New Society Publishers 2008
John Michael Greer has written a fascinating and engaging, but also contradictory and perplexing account of how he sees the industrial age ending.
His primary thesis is that collapse will not come as a sudden, abrupt End Of Days or Die Off scenario- one minute thriving bustling affluent society with the universe at its feet, the next a crumbling pile of rubble with nothing but wisps of smoke to hint of its former glory- but will follow a “catabolic” process of progressive disintegration, over possibly a couple of centuries. In Greer’s scenario, short periods of abrupt and sharp downturns- the beginning of which we are experiencing now- punctuate longer periods of relative stability. Like an organism that begins feeding on itself, society will collapse in a series of stepped-down stages as it becomes progressively unable to meet maintenance charges with income.
One of the most interesting parts of the book is the chapter “Tools for the Transition” Greer has a most interesting discussion of the merits of the slide-rule over the pocket calculator, and explains why it is infinitely more suitable to a low-energy world:it is durable- a solid aluminum slde-rule could last nearly geological time-scales-, independent, dependable and perhaps most significant of all its use of transparent- a future archeologist would be able to work out exactly how to use it. I have never actually used a slide-rule, but this discussion has inspired me to get one, and even teach its use on permaculture courses as an example of durable technologies. There are many other insightful observations Greer makes in this chapter, including comments on salvage and organic agriculture, and what will endure into the post-collapse world.
What sets Greer’s book apart and make it really interesting is his focus on “The Stories we tell Ourselves”. He weaves his discussion of the Long descent around what he sees as two modern myths- the myth of unending progress and technological supremacy on the one hand, and imminent catastrophe and collapse on the other. Both are myths or stories that fail to see the much more likely outcome of catabolic collapse. (more…)
The Strange Case of David Bellamy and Global Cooling December 8, 2008
Posted by Graham in : General , 2commentsGeorge Monbiot today has another excellent piece on climate deniers and Bellamy here.
Its official: scientists say the earth stopped warming fully 10 years ago and has in fact been cooling ever since.
According, that is, to one scientist, some time TV presenter and British naturalist David Bellamy, who could be heard this week being interviewed on the Pat Kenny Radio show Today on RTE.
Bellamy is well known for his climate-skeptic stance, which according to Wikipaedia has lead to his fall from grace in media circles including the BBC.
Bellamy’s earlier claim that most of the world’s glaciers are in fact growing in size has been well debunked by George Monbiot who wrote on the subject a few years ago saying
“It is hard to convey just how selective you have to be to dismiss the evidence for climate change. You must climb over a mountain of evidence to pick up a crumb: a crumb which then disintegrates in your palm. You must ignore an entire canon of science, the statements of the world’s most eminent scientific institutions, and thousands of papers published in the foremost scientific journals. You must, if you are David Bellamy, embrace instead the claims of an eccentric former architect, which are based on what appears to be a non-existent data set. And you must do all this while calling yourself a scientist.”
None of this seems to have phased Bellamy who was once again heard confidently pronouncing that the vast body of scientific data supporting anthropogenic climate change is simply wrong- If the world has been warming it is a natural result of sun spot activity- but records show that the earth is as a matter of fact cooling. Bellamy sites Hendrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder’s book “The Chilling Stars” which posits the theory of cosmic rays as more significant than greenhouse gases. (Calder of course was implicated in the Great Global Warming Swindle film as well, lending his credibility as some-time editor of New Scientist to the skeptic’s camp.)- he saw this as being “good science”, while Kenny defended his show and media impartiality on the basis that they had reviewed the book and were therefore open to a wide range of viewpoints-
can we expect some serious interviews with members of the Flat Earth Society Pat for balance ?
So how do we know he isnt right if in fact global temperatures have been declining as he states? Apparently it is not that complicated- 2008 may well be the coolest year of the decade, but it is still a lot warmer than in pre-industrial times. The general trend in temperatures and CO2 levels are, like the oil price, still rising. The last ten years on their own are not representative- we have to look at the longer time scale. It is a question of comparing long term climate change to short term weather variability.
A bit like claiming we are going into an ice age because there was abit of a frost on the car this morning- not really the kind of calliber of argument you would want from a world-renowned scientist, defender of nature and household name, but there you go.
A good discussion of this can be found here at RealClimate.org.
Another climate skeptic is Irish Times journalist Kevin Myers who was interviewed by Paul Cunningham for the book “Ireland’s Burning”. Myers is quoted as saying that the “obsession” with environmentalism is like a new religion- “you conform or you are some kind of heretic and unworthy.” He particularly slates the Catholic Church’s call for action on climate change through Trocaire
as a cynical ploy to get money and get people to church. This all seems rather odd because, from the climate activists’ perspective, and that of many climate scientists’ as well, there is anything but obsession with climate change from government and the public, just lip service at best as we vigorously continue to pursue business as usual. He also thinks that a lot of environmentalism is based on fear- “fear of death and fear of the consequences of not having lived a good life.”
On probing deeper, however, it seems Myers may hold rather contradictory positions on the subject:
I dont think there is very much we can do about this. If the damage has been done on the lines people have said, then it is already too late. We have to recognise this possibility that we have stepped into the funnel and that the planet is doomed. It’s possible this is the case.
Now, coming from a climate skeptic, that sounds like real doom-mongering indeed.
The Shock Doctrine: No Conspiracy Necessary November 30, 2008
Posted by Graham in : Geo-politics, book review , 5comments
Essential reading for anyone who wants to understand world history of the last 50 years is Naomi Klein’s The Shock Doctrine.
Her extraordinary account begins with the exploits of one Dr. Ewan Cameron, president of the American and World Psychiatric Association, who’s theories on treating psychiatric patients by erasing their personalities became influential in the spread of Electric Shock Treatment (EST) in U.S. hospitals from the late 1940s.
Cameron believed that he could use a combination of sensory deprivation, EST and drugs to reduce the personality to a tabula rasa- “shock and awe warfare on the mind.”
The application of these methods in political torture are probably obvious and well-known, but what Klein’s book does is to show the link between this method of first erasing the personality and then reconstructing it according to the desires of the “therapist” were applied systematically, not just to individuals but to whole countries through the economic theories of Milton Friedman. (more…)
Transition Town Tramore November 23, 2008
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentAfter the success of the Permaculture course at the Dunhill eco-centre I returned to Tramore at the weekend to deliver a talk on edible forest gardens organised by Transition Towns
Tramore.
More than 60 people turned up, many of them experienced gardeners, and it was interesting to find their response was good to the idea of the forest garden.
I included a slide of Robert Hart and this quote from him concerning his vision of reforesting the land by people planting useful tree crops in their gardens throughout the suburbs:
Obviously, few of us are in a position to restore the forests.. But tens of millions of us have gardens, or access to open spaces such as industrial wastelands, where trees can be planted. and if full advantage can be taken of the potentialities that are available even in heavily built up areas, new ‘city forests’ can arise…
Many suburban areas have beautiful and well cared-for ornamental gardens with considerable diversity of trees, shrubs, climbers, and perennials and i often often wonder how much food could be produced in such places if that same enthusiasm and energy was put into edible and useful plants.
I also mentioned the traditional Mayan forest gardens that evolved over perhaps long periods of time to consist primarily of edible and useful plants favoured by the inhabitants. This was not a deliberate designed process but one that took place by human selection of plants most useful to them. There is some interesting information about this here.
The Transition group in Tramore is vibrant and dynamic, this being their third event in a series since the summer. Some of the group have recently attended the first Skilling Up for Powerdown Trainers Training in Cultivate.
In the morning I was taken on a tour of the town to consider possibilities for edible landscaping, and shown the community garden at the Quakers’ Meeting House which is used as an educational garden for schoolchildren.
Book Review: Plan C November 21, 2008
Posted by Graham in : Peak Oil, book review, climate change, community , 3commentsPlan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak oil and Climate Change
Pat Murphy
New Society 2008
Pat Murphy is the Executive Director of Community Solutions who produced the seminal film “The Power Of Community” which charts Cuba’s transition to a low-energy society after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
That film still rates as the most essential of the Peak Oil genre, combining as it does a succinct analyses of peak oil with the real world example of how Cuba coped with a massive and abrupt decline in oil supplies, showing how the people adapted as a community and used permaculture and low-tech solutions rather than attempting to maintain a high-energy lifestyle by other means.
Plan C is Pat Murphy’s book which provides a range of solutions through energy, food, housing and transport with a focus on how communities will adapt to lower energy supplies through lifestyle changes and reducing energy demand.
In Murphy’s typology, Plan A is “Business as Usual”- which will be prevented by absolute resource and environmental constraints; Plan B is the proposed switch to “Clean Green technology”- which will not be able to replace oil in time; while Plan D is “Die Off”. Thus we are leftwith Plan C which the plan of “curtailment and community”- the kind of responses being explored in the Transition movement, as well as our own Powerdown Community project, for which this book is a key resource.
This is, as Murphy tells us at the start, “a numbers book”, filled with graphs and statistics which, although heavily focussed on the US, set a standard for how we need to assess our current consumption, and how we could cut back if we learn to make differnet priorities and just do things differently.
After an opening chapter which outlines the basic realities of peak oil and climate change and how they will effect us, Murphy looks at “Peak Economy”, crunching the numbers for us between energy consumption, income and pollution: it is a pretty clear picture that the richer you are the more energy you are likely to consume and the more pollution you create- and yet few economists have appear to have addressed this fundamental issue.
In the next chapter, Peak Empire, Murphy looks at the relationship between war, colonialism and energy, concluding that “The United States of America has had its day in the sun, and its record is not a good one…There is still time to become a nation with new values and the world needs a new kind of US citizen- one no linger addicted to the consumption patterns made possible by cheap oil”.
A key contribution the book makes that is not always covered by other peak oil books is the role of the media in shaping our values and culture, and inhibiting appropriate responses:
How is it that media can change people’s values, creating a different world view than that of the education system, the culture at large or religions? For this to happen, people must recieve massive amounts of information with themes that can be repeated over and over again. Thus a population which immerses itself in media recieves an extremely high volume of manipulative data.
Part 2 attends to the responses to these issues. Crucially, Murphy emphasizes the need for numeracy skills- and the need to understand energy in terms of per capita consumption. A big part of our failure to respond is in a general lack of understanding of how much energy we actually use in different sectors, and this allows us to be manipulated by the media and get priorities wrong.
For example, recycling is often promoted as an important way to reduce our footprint, and Murphy provides us with a lot of relevant figures on how much Americans consume and throw away; but goes onto say
Big as the post-consumer solid waste problem is, it is insignificant compared to pollution, toxins and hazardous waste from manufacturing everyday products.
The following chapters cover community responses to housing, transport and food. The chapter on transport is of great interest, as Murphy again uses the facts to show that conventional responses such as switching to mass transit may not reduce energy consumption enough, and argues that we needd to use the existing fleet of private vehicles differently, proposing a “smart jitney” system of private taxis and approprite software to link them with passengers in a convivial manner. Something like this emerged in Cuba, and apparently some of the software which could be used has been developed by Mapflow in Kinsale!
The food chapter is also excellent, giving some interesting data on the most nutritious vegetables as opposed to those most consumed: the first table is almost the inverse to the second.
He also quotes the wonderful Michael Pollan who has said
if you are concerned about your health you should probably avoid food products that make health claims.
The final chapters consider how to achieve these changes. In “Changind Practices” he emphasises the difference between conserving- which means minor adjustments- and curtailment- which “implies amuch more severe reduction in consumption (80-90%)”
It is too late to merely conserve. Curtailment must become the main driving force of Western Civilisation for the next century, just as consuming drove the last century…. Those who desire to make the transition successfully with minimal risk must start now to toughen and strengthen themselves physically and psychologically for difficult times to come. Such people will be more prepared to live in a future that is poorer in material goods but richer in spiritual, psychological and community benefits. Those who delay may not have the physical and emotional stamina to survive in a more physically difficult environment.
“Plan C” is a powerful and authoritative analyses of our energy predicament that helps us think outside the box in looking for solutions and helps give us the confidence to change. Essential reading for all transition and powerdown groups.
Media madness November 20, 2008
Posted by Graham in : General , 2commentsIf you had been listening to RTE radio 1 this morning you would have been treated to a great example of media double-think and extreme “disconnect”, as Kunstler might say.
On the one hand, we had a genuine gloom-and-doom story at the top of the news with the reporting of the visit to Ireland of a member of the International Energy Agency and their report that oil output from the world’s 400 major oil fields is expected to decline by a staggering 9%;
on the other hand we had Joe Duffy on Liveline encouraging service stations around the country to phone in if they have dropped the price of a litre of petrol to below one euro- which some of them have.
“We can beat this recession! As the price comes down at the pumps more people will buy petrol, which means that more money will go into the government coffers in tax, which will allow the government to spend more and break the recession” claimed Duffy with great hurrahs.
Unfortunately, the drop in oil price will surley be only temporary, and although the market will likely be highly volatile in the months to come, $200 a barrel could be with us soon, followed by actual shortages at the pumps. Ultimately, the recession is a result of declining physical resources in the real world, and there is no way we can pump our way out of recession by more consumption- a truly, grotesquely Orwellian concept.
At the Tipperary Institute November 16, 2008
Posted by Graham in : General , add a commentLast week I made my annual pilgrimage to the Tipperary Institute to give a 2-day course on permaculture.
This year I had students from both the B.A in Sustainable Rural Development as well as from the new BSc in Environmental and Natural Resource Management, running this year for the first time.
This year we were able to put some of the theory into practice and planted a mulched fruit and herb garden on a green verge in the car-park.
Hopefully the mini-garden will inspire more permaculture to be integrated into the extensive campus at the T.I., which, with its great facilities and land could move towards becoming an important centre of permaculture research and development.
I would love to see for example some of the land being used for trials of cultivated nut crops.
Many thanks to Pauline Ryan and Kevin Healion for organising these courses, and to the enthusiasm of the students for making the new garden a success.
Permaculture at Dunhill Eco-Centre September 28, 2008
Posted by Graham in : General , 2comments
Ive just got back from a great weekend at the Dunhill Eco-Park, Ballyphilip, Co. Waterford, where I gave an Introduction to Permaculture course.
The course was organised by Environment officer Samantha Richardson, and as well as gaining an introduction to permaculture, and the basics of forest garden design, the group of 14 students created the first part of what is to be a permaculture Community Garden at the Centre.
Before…
and after
keyhole paths and mulched beds planted with herbs, shrubs and fruit trees and bushes
The participants included members of the burgeoming Transition Towns Tramore who have asked me back for a talk on Forest Gardens and perennial agriculture, provisionally for the 21st November.
Many thanks to Samantha and Paul for their hospitality, and full power to Samantha for her commitment to the permaculture concept in the garden;
and thanks to all the course participants for their interest and hard work and all their contributions to the course.
