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Why I was Wrong About Population

Update Aug 25th: Brilliant talk by Hans Rosling, in which he explains “Child survival is the new Green”.

Book review PeopleQuake by Fred Pearce Eden Project Books 2010 Pbck; 342pp

There is a scary book I have a half-share in with a neo-Malthusian friend which contains graphs of the exponential growth curves in population for each of the countries of the world.

The Rapid Growth of Human Population 1750-2000 by William Stanton predicts a likely collapse and massive die-off by the title’s latter date on account of human population exceeding the carrying capacity of the planet resulting in resource wars, famines and environmental systems failure.

Most of the graphs tell a similar, devastating story: starting around 1850- when the world reached its first Billion inhabitants- populations that in many cases had been relatively stable for thousands of years began to explode and the nearly flat lines all morph spontaneously into hockey-sticks. With another 84-million added to the planet every year at the books publication, the stats and the authors’ analysis lend powerful support to the petri-dish theory of humanity: like bacteria in a sugar solution, homo sapiens will simply keep on consuming all the available resources, leading to massive population increase, followed by die-off.

This is a compelling idea that originated of course 200 years ago in Surrey with Malthus, author of Essay on the Principles of Population in 1798, but as Fed Pearce shows in his recent rebuttal to Malthus PeopleQuakethe inevitability of die-off has strongly informed much of the environmental movement- and still does. (Continued)

Stoves

I love stoves, and we recently made a simple rocket stove on the Introduction to Permaculture course at Carraig Dulra in Wicklow.

Above: rocket stove (foreground) and Storm Kettle behind

This was made out of a Feta cheese tin from the local wholefoods shop and a piece of single-wall stainless steel flu pipe attached to a 90degree bend (which cost about 30 euros). You cut the top off the tin with a pair of tin-snips and make a hole in the lid which then is pushed down into the tin forming a collar to support the flu; the 90degree elbow goes out the bottom through a similar hole in the side of the tin. The tin is filled with ash for insulation (before you slide the lid back over…).

Here is a neat video explaining exactly how to do it.

The stove works on the principle of the insulation allowing a hotter burn- so it is very efficient. We tried a little demo on the course for fun, with two teams, one making tea on the rocket stove, the other with a Storm Kettle. The stove one hands down- ok it wasnt really a fair test. the other team hadnt even managed to get the fire lit by the time our kettle had boiled!

I also recently bought a rocket stove from Wildstoves:

This is the StoveTec Wood & Charcoal Combination Rocket Stove I have been using it mainly for making tea outside whenever the weather is fine, which has been quite a bit lately. It is also easy to use, and well designed, very efficient- start the fire with a few shavings and a few minutes later with just three or four thumb-thickness sticks you have boiling water.

The stove is built to last, and has a handy steel rack for laying the sticks onto, which can then be pushed into the firebox as the burn. Also comes with a windshield, and this one has a ceramic brick you can insert into the firebox to protect the door from burning out when using charcoal.

I have yet to spend time cooking on it, but it would also be ideal to take camping if you have a vehicle. Also would be ideal next to the pizza oven for cooking up the source.

Wildstoves do a range of great looking stoves, including tiny ones for back-packing; if you want to make your own rocket stove (see above) they also supply DIY Rocket Stove elbows.

Another great source of information on stoves is WorldStoves.com

They work in developing countries where they set up factories to use local materials and skills to produce pyrolytic stoves- stoves which convert the fuel- which can be almost any biomass- into charcoal, which can be used as a soil amendment known as biochar. They have recently completed a project in Haiti.

The stoves are extremely efficient, combusting the wood gases also, thus saving wood and cutting down oin respiratory diseases common in many countries caused by cooking fires.

Another great source of information for DIY stove enthusiasts is the Aprovecho Research Centre, who design the StoveTec stoves.

Download their Capturing Heat pdf for details on more deigns for innovative stoves.

Happy stoving!

Stir- Crazy: Permaculture, Biodynamics and Compost Teas

In a recent interview, permaculture teacher Albert Bates discusses Rudolph Steiner and Biodynamics:

Click here for MP3

Albert defends Steiner on the basis that Anthroposophy has created a “tribe” which he sees as a good thing. In reality, Anthroposophy is more like a cult, which obscures its intentions, and is doing untold harm in persuading people that just making stuff up is somehow just as good as scientific experimentation. Albert gives an uncritical appraisal of Steiner’s contributions to education, social care and organic farming, claiming that it provides a “holistic world view” lacking in reductionist, mechanistic approaches.

I have blogged on zone5 about biodynamics before, describing what it is, reviewing some of the scientific evidence, and explaining why it can have no place in permaculture. (Continued)

Practical Permaculture in Wicklow July 31st- Aug 1st

I will be teaching on a 2-day course in practical permaculture at Carraig Dulra, Co. Wicklow, July 31st and August 1st, with Suzie Cahn.

The first day will include charcoal making (a potential business opportunity), biochar (which improves soil while also combating climate change), rocket stoves, DIY stoves, site surveying & observation techniques, basic triangulation, measurement and levels.

One of the main practicals for the day will be charcoal & biochar making.

The second day will focus on forest gardening, which is an approach that works with nature as much as possible, to generate a high food yield with minimum effort.

Topics for the day include natural succession, deciduous forest layers, canopy distances, wild plants and canopy design. The main practical exercise for the day will focus around design & work in the new forest garden at Carraig Dúlra organic farm.

Both days are open to beginners, however those with some Permaculture experience will also benefit from the practical exercises and demonstrations. You can attend one or both days.

This event takes place at Carraig Dúlra organic farm in Glenealy, Co Wicklow. Participants are welcome to camp at the farm during the course. The cost for the event is €60 each day (coffee/tea/camping included), and pre-booking is required.

More information and booking: Carraig Dúlra · Glenealy, Co Wicklow info@dulra.org · www.dulra.org/practical-permaculture · 0404 69570

SkeptEco #3: Genetically Engineered Food

We have had fun with this latest SkeptEco Podcast, this time addressing the contentious issue of Genetic Engineering.

I attended an Earth Day conference organized by Sustainable Ireland (now Cultivate) about 10 or 12 years ago in Maynooth which brought together anti-GE activists Vandana Shiva and Dr. Mae-Wan Ho with a representative from Monsanto. There must have been over 100 people in the conference hall; I’d guess every single one was anti-GM, and certainly anti-Monsanto. Many had been involved in pulling up GE trial crops, or would have been ready to.

That includes me, and if you had asked me just a few months ago I might have felt the same- in particular the thought of “Terminator Genes” could only send a shiver down one’s back and there is an understandable suspicion of big apparently unaccountable companies making money from controlling our food supply.

But it turns out Terminator Genes were never marketed, and their original purpose was as a safeguard against the dangers of GE crops seeding into the wild with possibly unintended consequences.

Many GE crops have been developed by independent universities and Government agencies, and not even always for profit. Could it be that GE crops, which after all represent a biological technique (rather than a chemical one) may not be the feared next step of corporate industrial food, but may actually provide a way out of over-industrialised chemical-based farming practices?

A key reference for our podcast is the remarkable book Tomorrow’s Table by Pamela Ronald and Raoul Adamchuk. You can find the Ronald’s website of the same name here. Their book suggests the potential for a surprising marriage between organics and GE- if only the Organics regulations would permit its use.

The bottom line is this: the peer-reviewed science suggests no special dangers in GE crops, and satisfactory regulatory measures. (Contrast this with clear dangers in some “conventional” “foods” eg some soda drinks.)

GE is essentially just a more precise means of plant breeding, no different in its basic outcomes than the aeons of plant breeding farmers have always engaged in, and unlike for example hybrid varieties- which are accepted even by organic standards- in most cases, the farmers can still save their seeds from these improved varieites.

Scaremongering and calling for a total ban is likely to only push the companies into more secrecy, making regulation more difficult. Instead, it beholds all of us to become informed about what could be a very useful technology for us all.

See the SkeptEco website for more references.

Skepteco #2 Introducing SkeptEco

The second edition of the new SkeptEco podcast is up! This week the SkeptEco team- Eoghain, Christina, Michael and myself talk about why we started the podcasts, the relationship between science, rationality and the environmental movement, and what other topics we might cover in later episodes.

http://skepteco.wordpress.com/

Requiem for a Species

Book review: Requiem for a Species Why we resist the truth about Climate Change

Clive Hamilton

Earthscan 2010

Hdbck 286pp

Climate change is here with us now and the processes and feedbacks already underway will guarantee at least a global average of a further 4 degrees warming this century no matter what we do, with devastating effects for civilisation due to rising sea levels, loss of arable land due to desertification and water shortages, and consequent mass migrations on Biblical scales leading to unparalleled disruption, human misery and most likely a die-off of billions.

Irresponsible fear-mongering from a romantic- tragic prophet of doom? No, for as Australian philosophy professor Clive Hamilton convincingly shows in this eloquently argued and wide-ranging book, this is the inevitable conclusion from the best science we have, and we had better get used to it.

Hamilton’s book surveys the science we have on the subject, and then gives an interesting analysis of political responses, and relates these to the psychology of denial: why is it we have failed to act on the evidence to avoid catastrophe? Why is it that we are blind to the hopeless inadequacy of current proposed measures? Why are we so reluctant to face the music: the current way of life we have become accustomed to in the modern age is coming to an end. (Continued)

Stewart Brand and Ian McEwan in Dublin

Just got back from a short trip to Dublin to see controversial environmentalist Stewart Brand and Booker-prize winning British author Ian McEwan speak at the speak at the Dublin Writers Festival.

They were discussing their respective books “Whole Earth Discipline” and “Solar”.

Apparently the two writers have known each other for some time. Their recent books have a certain amount in common and are indeed quite complimentary, hence the double-bill for this event.

McEwan’s novel takes climate change as its theme. McKewan is obviously very interested in science and actually joined an scientific expedition to the Arctic before writing the book, and based scenes in the book on the trip.

McEwan said he felt we have been fortunate to have lived through a Golden Age of science writing since the 1970 that this body of work from the likes of Dawkins, E.O Wilson, should be considered as of great literary merit as well as scienctific.

Solar is hilarious, had me nearly rolling around laughing. One of the themes he deals with is the huge conceptual gap in academia between science and humanities subjects, something I relate to from experience of a sociology degree (graffiti above the toilet-roll holder in the university toilets: “Get your sociology degree here.”)

In the novel, McEwan has his lead character the brilliant but dysfunctional Michael Beard, a physicist, fall in love with his first wife, a literature undergraduate. It seems he is able, in just a couple of weekends reading, to gain enough superficial knowledge of the girl’s favorite classical authors to impress her enough to win her heart. Compared to the enormously hard-won truths of science, as far as literature goes, it seems easy to fake it.

He also takes a few well-aimed potshots at “cultural relativists” who seem to think everything is just a matter of opinion, also to hilarious effect.

This theme- the gulf between those who understand things like climate science and those who are deeply suspicious of science in general, is directly relevant to Brand’s book, which takes on the four Holy Cows of the environmental movement: urbanization, population, nuclear power and GM crops. “I had learned to distrust the opinions of my environmental colleagues” Brand ruefully comments. Environmentalists are more in the “romantic” (=humanities) camp than the scientific/engineering camp that Brand represents.

One of the omissions in his book however is the subject of Peak Oil. He only makes one reference to it I think, stating that he does not believe it willl have the significant impact the like of Kunstler, Heinberg and Campbell believe it will.

I had partly traveled to the talk to get in a question on this, which I did: why did he not deal with this issue, which could be nearly considered to have become the fifth Holy Cow: the impending peak and decline in the world’s life-blood of liquid fossil energy.

Brand answered that he feels it will not be the main event that others claim. He feels we are on a plateau and this will probably be a long, uneven one rather than a sudden abrupt drop; that other technologies may yet come on stream to make up the shortfall; that market controls have already shown themselves extremely successful in rapidly changing behavior, viz. the demand destruction in the US of a couple of years ago when prices spiked above $150 a barrel.

I was not entirely convinced, particularly when he included shale oil gas as amongst new technologies, a climate disaster I would have thought. However, it is true that while many leading pundits think we are now past peak, and the presumably related financial collapse is still getting worse, we may not be staring over the abyss of total collapse and reversion to warlord-ism just yet.

Another theme I would have liked to have discuss with Brand had there been more time (he declined an interview) would have been his view of the prevalence amongst romantic environmentalists of the tragedy of life, and how there is therefore a resistance to engineers coming along trying to fix things. So strongly embedded are we in the idea that humans have gone horribly wrong and we are doomed, we prefer to wallow in the tragedy. If it were possible to fix the world with geo-engineering for example- another of Brand’s themes- that would imply that our excesses, our consumerist habits and inability to stop, and most of all, our presumed separation from “nature” might not be such tragic flaws after all.

These are fascinating ideas, and the bringing together of these two writers, particularly the embracing of science- with all its warts as embodied in the horrible character of Michael Beard- perhaps suggests the great divide between the sciences and the humanities can after all be bridged.

Announcing the New SkeptEco Podcast

The first episode in a new podcast SkeptEco has just been launched. The SkeptEco team has chosen an old favorite for our launch: Can Organic farming Feed the World?

with Eoin O’Callaghan, Naomi Fein, Christina LaPerle, Graham Strouts and Michael Wellock

The SkeptEco podcast came out of a study group that has been meeting around Kinsale for the past few months. Our interest has been to examine critically claims of the environmental movement by reading the existing published scientific research. Links to all the papers referred to can be found on the SkeptEco website.

Creating a Forest Garden

Book Review: Creating a Forest Garden

Working with nature to grow edible Crops

by Martin Crawford

Green Books Hardback 384 pp

Forward by Rob Hopkins

Martin Crawford, Director of the Agroforestry Research Trust in Devon, UK, has produced a beautiful and practical book which seems sure to become the definitive text for cool temperate forest gardens.

As part of his work at the ART Martin is already the author of many encyclopedic manuals covering dozens of topics and thousands of plants, and has been producing the essential Agroforestry News since he began his forest garden in the Dartington estate 15 years ago.

Above: Martin engulfed by bamboo with Italian Alder growing behind him at his garden at the ART

Creating a Forest Garden is eminently practical and down-to-earth, packed with information and good advice, and illustrated throughout with really gorgeous colour photos, including many full-page ones making it of interest to the general lover of plants and gardens as well as the serious forest garden designer. As such it succeeds in bringing together the technical issues of forest garden design, comprehensive details on edible and useful plants as well as introducing the concept to the non-specialist.

(Continued)